Prediction Market Protocol
Commit-reveal probabilistic forecast aggregation over objectively resolvable evaluation outcomes.
Event definition: forecaster estimates the probability of an evaluator-proposed compliance gap. Settlement in this demo was performed by a single deployer acting as agent and evaluator.
The recorded Sepolia on-chain lifecycle (0x28ae41...e05b3e) was executed with deployer account (0x34867B...2888) on contract 0xFF5e85... acting as both agent and evaluator. Multi-agent panels (N = 3) represent simulated benchmark scenarios to demonstrate protocol aggregation.
Upstream ML forecasters predict general GDPR/EU AI Act liability outcomes, whereas PredictionMarket resolves on specific evaluator rubric gap findings. Operational deployment requires alignment between question syntax and on-chain rubric criteria.
Will independent evaluator identify an unresolved Article 6(4) compliance gap in customer transcript fine-tuning?
Resolves TRUE (1) if an unresolved compliance gap is confirmed, FALSE (0) otherwise.
Evaluator Determination / ReputationSettlement
0x34867B3Ad7B4353BA08bD74664E8bF27836e2888
Revealed Forecast Register (1)
| Agent | Address | Probability | Evidence Digest | Revealed Time | Brier Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| agent_deployer | 0x34867B...2888 | 65.0% | 0x8fa12b9c...901842 | 2:15:20 PM | 0.1225 |
Commit-Reveal Terminal (§10.4)
keccak256(chainId, marketId, agent, prob, digest, nonce)
Resolution & Settlement Console
Note: In this MVP, challenges are resolved by the protocol admin evaluator.